🏚 Looming Property Disaster

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#RealEstate #Housing #HeiseSays
As Australia’s debt to GDP levels skyrocket we are facing a looking property disaster.

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30 COMMENTS

  1. I'd say the problem isn't government intervention – as that article you note says, Heise, government intervention sometimes has the reverse effect as intended (and sometimes exactly the effect).

    I'd say the problem is considering property as an asset class at all.

    There's literally no reason why someone would want to own 20 houses; they do it to make money.

    If you psychologically (and then legislatively) remove the concept of property as a money-making scheme, there's a chance we can fix this.

    Suggestion: Over a long period (50-100) years (a lifetime), slowly reduce the number of properties anyone can legally own…until you get down to 1 (or possibly 2).

    Of course, that won't make the free market peeps happy…but screw it.

    Over the course of that period, this strategy would hopefully make the property market far less volatile/inflationary.

    As the number of properties anyone can legally own drops, so too would the ability to treat property as a business.

    Then, property prices would hopefully be more tightly correlated with tangible things like population growth and salary.

    Property would be considered something responsible to purchase for your retirement but not so expensive due to the previous generation buying all the good property in the good locations (artificially inflating the market to price out future generations).

    Interested to know if this type of things has been tried before (outside of communist countries) – I 'd be surprised if it had been.

    I happen to own 3 properties (soon to be 4) and I would be happy to give all but one of them up in the future (for a profit no doubt) if it meant we could create a financially sustainable property market for future generations.

    If anyone thinks the current generation of young people is ducked, consider the generations 2-5 away (or 20 away).

  2. 10:20 Those regions would have to make a change in zoning laws so that Medium Density Apartments are allowed to be built. Zoning Laws are intentionally used by Local Councils to intervene to restrict the housing supply. In Japan (at least Tokoyo) they don't have this and it works very well.

  3. Ive just about got to the point where I no longer want to live in Sydney. I love the place and dispite the price madness we can still afford to live there BUT I simply refuse to pay the sort of money that houses are demanding now. Thanks to Banks easily lending, folks generally just dont seem to have any idea of what represents fair value.

  4. cant wait for rates to increase, banks of mom and dad, parents house as collateral all will belong to the banks due to bastard children wanting to get into housing market

  5. Boomers got in just in time? Generalising some, ain't ya? I got in at approx 10%, increasing to 17.5% over the next 20 years and then started going down just when we finished paying off the mortgage! Oh yes, some of us got in at precisely the WRONG time! And I am one of the lucky ones, as others I know personally lost EVERYTHING and are today literally homeless. So please, stop showing how little you know.

  6. Heise reckons renting instead of owning is underrated. Quite right….as long as you have an income, or better two incomes. What're you supposed to do in old age when you're on a paltry income and face years of increasing rents? Owning a residence is paramount, if not for anything else, for security in later life.

  7. You are correct in saying the boomers had it well when they had rising interest rates while they saved their deposits, then they had ever declining interest rates as they paid off the loan.

  8. I dont blame people FOMOing in Though because even tho it will likely crash and crash soon. If it does not crash soon all the young people will be priced out completely of a lot of the main cities for what seems like eternity.

  9. It's already pretty hard to argue that the juice is worth the squeeze for new entrants to the Australian real estate market. But the Australian property cult lives on, for now.

    When enough people decide that the juice isn't worth the squeeze, i.e. when the market runs out of greater fools, there will be a correction.

  10. If Asia is where the activity is, Darwin is close to the action , and we have uranium supplies not far away to make the electricity that will smelt iron etc, run the factories . Since English Europeans in Australia are not having kids , the Asiatic and islanders that are here will love living in the hot tropical weather . I would start buying land up north . The south will not be competitive with green energy power . NT could become a new State ,secede and the aboriginal overlords can sit back and use the non European genetic citizens to work for them . They just flog land like the English did before them.

  11. The boomers are the generation handed everything on a silver platter, high interest rates on savings, cheap housing and education, plentiful good jobs, and then entered into the workforce at a time when taxes were being slashed. Yet despite this they have saved almost nothing for retirement while racking up massive public debt, and guess who they are getting to pay for it…

  12. Raise rates by .25% and watch all the homeowners squeal. I’m waiting for the Reserve lending facility to end on June 30. That will mean the banks actually have to get their money via normal channels again at higher rates..

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