We are deep into the campaign now and the trend in every poll is towards Labor.
But be wary of anyone telling you the election is over – the polls were famously wrong in 2019, but less well known is that in 2022 they got Labor’s primary vote wrong.
If that is happening again this election is closer than it seems, and the size of the crossbench, which national polls can’t measure, will be one of the biggest factors in the result.
If the polls are right, Labor will be starting to think of the seats it can win to hold on to a majority that looking very unlikely on a few weeks ago.
Out of all the so-called Teal seats won in 2022, Goldstein in Melbourne is the most likely to go back to the Liberal Party.
This is a suburban rather than an inner-city seat and will be feeling the brunt of interest rate rises.
While a redistribution has pushed out independent Zoe Daniel’s margin to 3.9 per cent, she was heavily reliant on preferences last time given she only got 34.5 per cent of the primary vote, so even a small drop on her primary vote could see her lose the seat.
Liberal party insiders are convinced the Jewish vote will help Tim Wilson, who was ousted last time.
Another Liberal kicked out by voters in 2022 is returning in Robertson on the NSW central coast, with Lucy Wicks hoping it will be second time lucky against Labor incumbent Gordon Reid.
The seat on the NSW central coast is a true bellwether, having been won by the party forming government at the past 15 elections.
At a margin of just 2.2 per cent and being ground zero for the housing crisis, if the Liberal Party can’t pick it up it will be a sign it is not making ground in the country’s biggest state.
Labor will be on the hunt in the Tasmanian seat of Bass, which takes in Launceston and surrounds.
It is held by just 1.4 per cent by Bridget Archer, who has managed to build her personal progressive brand despite being somewhat of an outcast in the Liberal party.
Labor is targeting Peter Dutton in its campaign believing he is a drag on the Liberal vote.
Sturt is another seat Labor is homing in on, held by the Liberal party by just 0.5 per cent.
The seat takes in Adelaide’s east and has not been Labor since 1972, but Labor nearly won it last time despite not having much of a campaign.
With a new Climate 200 backed candidate running, and the greens polling strongly in 2022, Liberal James Stevens can’t afford to drop below 40 per cent of the primary vote, after shedding seven per cent of his primary vote last time to be down to 43 per cent.
Labor will also have its eyes on Griffith, as it tries to take back a seat it had held since 1998 until a surprise Greens victory in 2022.
Max Chandler-Mather has been a high-profile MP making a name for himself on calling for major reform in housing, but he also attracted controversy for appearing at a CFMEU rally.
The margin is a deceptive one – the Greens hold it by 10.5 per cent against the LNP, but if Labor can improve its primary vote compared to the Greens by only two to three per cent it would likely win the seat with LNP preferences, so this is right in play.
Lingiari is a huge seat which covers the entire of the Northern Territory outside of Darwin.
It’s a small seat in terms of voters and a lot of them live remotely, so getting a true reading of the seat is notoriously difficult – when you add in the margin of Labor’s incumbent Marion Scrymgour of 1.6 per cent, it’s a case of anyone’s guess who will win.
But one crucial factor that could help Labor is thousands of new indigenous voters who enrolled to vote on the Voice Referendum.
