A string of former Liberals, local powerbrokers and controversy‑scarred candidates are falling short of their sights of winning seats in the 2026 South Australian election.
It comes as Labor is projected to win another term of government and One Nation sees a rise in the proportion of voters across the state.
Some of candidates remaining are awaiting, court cases or party‑room baggage into polling day but still commanding strong local followings that could fracture the far-right vote.
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Lower house independents
In Black, disgraced ex-Liberal leader and convicted drug supplier David Speirs has conceded barely gaining 15 per cent in early voting as Labor surges ahead in the coastal seat.
Speirs, convicted last year of two counts of supplying cocaine, has been highly visible on social media and at community events as he tries to convince voters to give him another chance.
But Labor’s Alex Dighton, who won the seat at the by‑election triggered by Speirs’ resignation, is to retain it.
In MacKillop, former Liberal MP Nick McBride is fighting to hold the seat as an independent despite spending much of the campaign wearing an ankle monitoring bracelet.
McBride, one of the state’s wealthiest MPs, was charged in December with allegedly assaulting his wife — allegations he denies — and is yet to appear in court.
He has spent the campaign criss-crossing his vast electorate, but the Liberals remain competitive in a seat that has long been conservative heartland.
Narungga’s Fraser Ellis is the only former Liberal widely expected to hold his seat. Ellis was found guilty in 2024 of four counts of deceit for rorting $2738 from the Country Members Allowance.
He quit the Liberal Party in 2021 after being charged and has since rebuilt a strong local base. Despite the conviction, Ellis remains favoured to retain the seat, making him one of the more stable independents in the field.
Mount Gambier is wide open after former Liberal MP Troy Bell — who quit the party in 2017 — was jailed last year for stealing more than $400,000 intended for disadvantaged youth programs.
Bell was sentenced to five years’ imprisonment, with a non‑parole period of 2.5 years, after being found guilty of 20 counts of theft and five counts of dishonest dealing with documents.
Independent candidate Travis Fatchen, Bell’s long‑time office manager, is was in the running to replace him. Fatchen has openly supported Bell, telling the ABC he effectively acted as a “proxy member” in Mount Gambier while Bell was in Adelaide for parliament, and is expected to continue the electorate’s recent trend of backing strong local independents.
One Nation candidate, Anne-Marie Loef for Mount Gambier so far in early counts is ahead of Fatchen to win the seat.
Another interesting independent is Matt Schultz in the Adelaide Hills seat of Kaval, who has made commitments of trying to fix the areas infrastructure woes – which both major parties have promised in some capacity during the 2026 election campaign.
So far in early voting counts, Schultz is ahead in the count of Liberal candidate Bradley Orr.
Upper House independents
In the Upper House, Nick Xenophon’s once‑formidable SA‑BEST is on the brink of disappearing, with its only remaining MLC Connie Bonaros struggling for visibility since Xenophon’s 2018 defeat.
Bonaros has had backing from prominent seafood industry figures, but since her split with former colleague Frank Pangallo — now running as a Liberal in Waite — she has rarely been seen outside of supporting Labor.
She recently re‑entered headlines after calling One Nation’s Cory Bernardi a “malaka”.
Frank conceded early on election night to Labor MP, Catherine Hutchesson.
Meanwhile, Tammy Franks — who previously announced she would retire, then quit the Greens in 2025 — is now running for another eight‑year term as an independent, re-entering the race amid a surge in support for One Nation and a broader appetite for non‑major‑party candidates.
Her profile makes her one of the most recognisable names on the Upper House ballot.
Another notable name is One Nation’s SA leader Cory Bernardi who is running as the party’s sure thing on the upper house ticket.
He’s previously said the One Nation was committed to “forgotten South Australians”.
Across the state, independents and minority parties are emerging as some of the most unpredictable and influential players in the election.
Some carry criminal convictions. Others carry deep local loyalty.
All of them have the potential to disrupt major‑party plans and reshape the next parliament.
