Fresh polling spells trouble for Teal MP Allegra Spender in the seat of Wentworth as the Liberals grain ground in the eastern Sydney electorate ahead of the looming federal election.
Exclusive internal party polling, provided to Sky News Australia, shows Liberal candidate Ro Knox has boosted her popularity in the seat since July last year.
Ms Spender’s net personal favourability sits at 14 per cent compared to Ms Knox at 24 per cent, while the Teals’ brand has dipped to negative-10 per cent compared to the Liberals at plus-13 per cent.
Sky News host Laura Jayes identified financial economic security as one of key election issues among Wentworth voters as she detailed the new polling on her AM Agenda program.
Providing his analysis on the polling, RedBridge Group Director Simon Welsh said the “aspirational voter” cohort in seats, like Wentworth, are drifting back to the Liberal Party given the current economic conditions.
“We’ve got a cohort of sort of ‘aspirational voter’ in these seats that really value delivery, really value competence in government in their elected representatives,” Mr Welsh told Sky News.
“These are the group (who) came off (Scott) Morrison in 2022, particularly around the back end of the Covid pandemic, when those issues around his competence, the vaccine rollout… those sorts of issues brought them off Morrison and onto the Teals.
“These are the voters who, because of the economic conditions, are drifting back to the Liberals.”
Wentworth has been held by the Teals since the 2022 federal election when Ms Spender secured victory over Dave Sharma in the once-safe Liberal seat.
However, the polling expert said other cohorts, such as the younger demographic, help push the independent vote.
Mr Welsh noted the large scale of young Australians moving into the Wentworth electorate through the density in housing.
“First of all, they (younger voters) lean progressive, so we know that’s kind of problematic for the Liberals to begin with,” Mr Welsh said.
“But, they are the beating heart of this dissatisfaction with either major party. So they are the beating heart of people looking to put their vote in a third way.
“That is great news for the Teal independents.”
However, Mr Welsh emphasised younger voters are traditionally more difficult to poll, meaning seat-level survey results can “grossly” underestimate the impact of this group.
Asked whether the issue of antisemitism could play a role in tilting the vote of Jewish Australians in the electorate to the Liberals, Mr Welsh acknowledged there was “certainly a shift”.
“There’s certainly a group within the Jewish community that is responding well to the Liberals’ stronger messaging, if I can use that phrase, around antisemitism, the conflict in Gaza,” he said.
“But like many of these communities, we’ve got to be really careful not to think of them as homogenous things that sort of move on block.
“There are differences within the community, but certainly there is a part of the Jewish community that is moving towards the Liberals in this election.”
Wentworth encompasses various prominent Jewish suburbs in Sydney’s east, with Jewish voters making up about 16 per cent of the electorate.
The fresh polling comes after Ms Spender last year faced scrutiny for attempting to scrub Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes a Court’s name from a covert power list.
Ms Spender admitted at the National Press Club in October that she had tried to pressure the Australian Financial Review to remove the powerbroker from the list, which is designed to rank the most powerful figures in Australia who operate behind the scenes.
At the time, Ms Spender claimed her motivation for trying to strike Mr Holmes a Court off the list was the perception that he controlled her by “pulling the strings”.
Mr Holmes a Court has since rejected claims he asked Teal MPs to get him off the publication’s ranking.
