Queensland election could spell trouble for federal Labor, analysts say

Outside of the Rockhampton showgrounds, Bill Cameron has just cast his vote.

He wishes it was his last for a while, but it’s not.

After next weekend’s Queensland election Mr Cameron knows there’s a federal election coming down the track.

But with polls suggesting there is a mood for change in the Labor-held Sunshine State, some politicians may be glad there is a few months of breathing space before voters head back to the booths.

Flight to ‘affordable’ regions?

Mr Cameron lives in one of Queensland’s “cheapest cities” to buy a home.

But surging property prices and rent for younger members of his family are a prime concern.

“They have to get a deposit to buy houses and that’s getting further and further out of their reach,” he says.

He’s not alone among voters at early polling in Central Queensland, about 700 kilometres north of Brisbane, nominating housing and the cost of living as their major worries. 

“[These are] obviously the political fault lines in Australian politics right now,” says Tony Barry, director of polling company RedBridge Group.

“There’s a lot of grievance in the electorate … that fuels a mood for change,” Mr Barry says of internal polling his company has conducted.

“That’s a problem for Albanese and the federal Labor government.”

Will booting Miles calm electors? 

Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has visited his home state to campaign with David Crisafulli, who polls suggest will be the next Queensland premier.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has done the same with Premier Steven Miles but the situation might not be quite as rosy.

While Mr Miles has been throwing cost of living “Hail Marys” like free school lunches, Mr Barry says they don’t seem to be connecting with voters.

And if the Miles Government is voted out, the former Liberal Party strategist says it might not be enough to calm the mood of voters before the federal election.

“The old adage ‘bring out your baseball bats’ probably won’t help the federal government too much at this stage,” Mr Barry says.

“In fact, with a new Coalition government in place at a state level that will give them a bigger microphone to prosecute for change at a federal level.”

No more low-hanging fruit

Queensland is often a key to winning federal polls because it’s home to 30 seats. But Labor holds just five, and all of those are around Brisbane.

This means the federal Coalition can’t get much more political milage out of Queensland, says Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams.

“There’s no low-hanging fruit left for the LNP to pick off a Labor tree.” 

However, Dr Williams says there is a sense that Labor’s brand is damaged in Queensland. 

The party received a swing against it at recent council elections in Brisbane, where Labor has not been in power for 20 years. 

“We know Labor’s brand has haemorrhaged,” Dr Williams says.

Labor’s northern bolthole

In Labor’s state stronghold of Townsville, 1,400km north of Brisbane, there could be some change at a state level.

Dr Maxine Newlands, a principal research fellow at James Cook University, says the three seats that immediately surround the city — Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra, a seat once held by Mr Crisafulli — could be in play.

She says the most pressure will likely be on Thuringowa, where there has been a high level of early voting.

“People have made their mind up, and during a lot of the local elections people were voting for the independents and the more right-leaning parties,” Dr Newlands says.

She says crime is “always up there” as an issue in North Queensland, and the late entry of reproductive rights on the agenda could be gaining traction.

If there are losses in the north she says Labor will be keen to win them back, but a fourth term for Labor at a state level could be too much for voters.  

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