The seat of Mackay bleeds red.
In Labor’s hands for 104 of the past 109 years, it’s a seat the party is keen to retain in Saturday’s Queensland election when outgoing MP Julieanne Gilbert retires.
When she was elected in 2015, Ms Gilbert was the fifth Labor representative of the electorate in the past 100 years.
This election’s Labor candidate, Belinda Hassan, hopes to be the sixth.
Won in 1915 by William Forgan Smith, who became Queensland’s longest-serving Labor premier, the seat survived three decades of Nationals’ domination in other parts of the state and was the most marginal of Labor’s seven seats after the Campbell Newman landslide in 2012.
Eager to continue the stronghold, Premier Steven Miles has visited the electorate three times in the past four weeks.
More than half of all 21,841 registered Mackay voters had cast their ballot as of Tuesday — the third highest pre-polling turnout in the state behind McConnell and Caloundra.
Political expert Frank Mols said while voters could be “rusted on” in the tropical seat, some could be starting to “rust off”.
“Queensland is known to be more of a volatile state, where people are known to switch sides if they’re not happy,” he said.
Belinda Hassan is Labor’s candidate for the Queensland seat of Mackay. (ABC News: Nick Haggarty)
Healthcare on the mind of voters
With a population of more than 38,000, the Mackay electorate takes in the city’s urban area where there are many younger families.
Access to healthcare has come under increasing scrutiny since the 2020 election with the closure of GP clinics and a lack of bulk billing practices adding pressure on hospital emergency departments.
Labor has promised to build a satellite hospital and set up six GP bulk-billing clinics in the Mackay Whitsunday region, but has not provided details on where they would be located.
The latter is part of a $365 million plan to set up 50 bulk-billing clinics across the state, including in 38 regional areas.
Ms Hassan said she was optimistic she would not become the first Labor candidate in Mackay to lose an election in more than half a century.
“Everyone’s been saying, ‘It’s been 100 years of Labor’, and the reality is people vote Labor because they feel like we are the best people to look after this region,” she said.
Former police officer’s crime-fighting agenda
Meanwhile, LNP candidate Nigel Dalton has been drawing on his background as a sergeant in charge of the city’s Crime Prevention Unit to make his pitch to voters.
His emphasis has been on early intervention for young offenders, including upgrades to community sports infrastructure.
LNP Mackay candidate Nigel Dalton is a former community police officer. (ABC Tropcial North: Myles Houlbrook-Walk)
“When a young person plays sport, they move away from crime — they are more engaged in society, they’re resilient to defeat and to wins,” Mr Dalton said.
“And on top of that, then you get the family getting engaged as well, and there’s nothing better to prevent crime than having a family involved with a young person.”
Small business owner Kylee Stanton is also running for the seat, representing One Nation, which garnered more than 12 per cent of the vote in 2020.
While she supported consequences for young offenders, she said the minor party offered an alternative to the LNP.
“At the end of the day, I don’t agree with putting a 12-year-old into adult time,” she said.
“There’s better solutions around that, such as boot camp style rehabilitation programs, looking at getting our judges to take a look at the bail laws before they start sentencing.”
The Greens are represented by Paula Creen, who unsuccessfully ran for the federal seat of Dawson in 2022.
The party polled behind the Legalise Cannabis Party on first preferences in the last state election.
A tight contest
To the north of Mackay, the LNP’s Amanda Camm holds the seat of Whitsunday on a margin of 3.3 per cent, while further west, the seat of Burdekin is comfortably held by the Opposition’s Dale Last with a buffer of 7 per cent.
Further south, the electorate of Mirani has seen a re-alignment in the months leading up to the election, with sitting member Stephen Andrew being disendorsed by One Nation.
He’s now campaigning as a Katter’s Australian Party candidate, and despite challenges from Labor, the LNP and One Nation, is expected to retain his seat.
Deputy premier Cameron Dick, Labor candidate for Mackay Belinda Hassan and Premier Steven Miles at a press conference in Mackay. (Danielle Jesser)
Dr Mols said with the clear policy difference between the two major parties on the hot issue of crime, he was hesitant to predict how the seat will fall given how significant the impact of full optional preferencing may be.
“There is a general trend of the major parties becoming less and less popular, very slowly, over different cycles,” he said.
“We see smaller parties who do reasonably well in rural parts.”
And with the loss of incumbency on Labor’s end, he said both candidates for the major parties were in with a chance.
“They both have their profiles, they can both claim to be locals properly,” he said.
“If you had a checklist of things a party would want, they would be ticking a lot of them: The professional career, the local connection.”
When is the 2024 Queensland election?
Saturday, October 26. Pre-polling is open until Friday at 6pm.
Where can I vote?
Visit the Queensland Electoral Commission’s online portal.
What electorate am I in and who are the candidates?
Find out what electorate you are in and who the candidates are on ABC Queensland Votes 2024.
For a comprehensive guide to the 2024 state election, including a comprehensive preview by ABC election analyst Antony Green, go to Queensland Votes 2024.
