Four Far North Queensland seats emerge as key state election battlegrounds

As Queenslanders prepare to go to the polls to decide the state’s next parliament, parties are nervously eyeing the Far North to learn what surprises its voters may have in store.

From cane fields south of Cairns to Cape York and the Torres Strait, the region is a “huge melting pot” of political views, according to Australia National University political expert Andrew Hughes.

With some constituents “as passionate about the environment as anyone you’ll come across on earth”, he says others see the resources and agriculture sectors as critical for the region’s future.

“It reminds me very much of Tasmania in the 80s,” Dr Hughes says.

The Labor government holds all four seats of Mulgrave, Cairns, Cook and Barron River.

Premier Steven Miles and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli’s frequent trips in the lead up to the October 26 election suggest all are considered in play.

Dr Hughes says Labor will be looking to the Far North for “someone it can rally around to rebuild” if, as polls suggest, it loses office after three terms.

“If [Labor] have too hard of a wipe-out in the Far North, there’s no-one who people can identify with, which means that vote will drift across to other parties.”

Bellwether battleground

The Liberal National opposition had its own Far North Queensland wipe-out in 2015, when it lost three of the region’s seats and government after just one term.

Bree James, the founder of a parenting magazine whose background includes travel writing and small business mentoring, is regarded as the most likely LNP candidate to win one back.

For 13 months, she has treated the campaign trail in the seat of Barron River as her full-time job, as the opposition zeroes in on a seat often regarded as a bellwether.

“Normally, whoever has got Barron River has government and so it’s significant to the LNP for that reason,” Dr Hughes says.

Held by Craig Crawford, an experienced MP who spent six years as a minister, Barron River is a microcosm of Far North Queensland — stretching from the rainforest village of Kuranda, across cane farms and suburbia, to Cairns’ northern beaches.

The conservation vote here is such that Labor’s signature pledge is to compulsorily acquire a coastal headland locals want protected, while the LNP has designated its environment spokesman Sam O’Connor as its “buddy” MP, helping Ms James on her campaign.

But the LNP’s campaign has not been a smooth ride.

The party’s regional chair Michael Trout, himself a former Barron River MP, stepped down in August after he was charged with assault, and the LNP has had to field questions about a $17,500 donation he made after the alleged incident.

Voting in the flood aftermath

Politicians on the hustings frequently list housing, crime and the cost of living as the big issues they are focused on.

But when Holloways Beach resident Kathy Pitt casts her vote in Barron River, she will be thinking about the battle to get back to her own home.

A local for 30 years, Ms Pitt was devastated by the floods that swept through after tropical cyclone Jasper in December.

Getting tradespeople to fix her place has been “an insurmountable task” and navigating government assistance has not been easy either.

“When I wasn’t hearing about grants, I’d send an email to [Labor MP Craig Crawford] and he’d get on to the minister’s office and get a reply I couldn’t get myself over the phone,” she says.

Centacare FNQ has worked with about 800 people affected by the floods, who are “still at different levels of recovery”, according to senior manager Andrea Obeyesekere.

Some are still living in caravans or couch surfing.

Ms Obeyesekere says voters want more help dealing with insurance companies, simpler government grant processes and more local staff who can help when disasters strike.

Ms Pitt says Mr Crawford’s performance following the disaster will stand him in good stead.

But Dr Hughes says Cairns’s worst flood in more than a century will likely help the Greens in Barron River and may even lead to swings to the LNP in some of the electorate’s beachside suburbs where the party’s vote is traditionally low.

Elsewhere, it won’t be a big election issue at all.

“Many people in Cairns haven’t been affected and they don’t travel to the suburbs on the Barron River delta,” Ms Obeyesekere says.

End of a dynasty

In the urban seat of Cairns, Tourism Minister Michael Healy is most likely to withstand a swing against the government with his margin of 6 per cent, according to Dr Hughes.

But things get tricker for Labor in Mulgrave, to the south of Cairns, where sitting member Curtis Pitt is retiring, and 10 candidates — including three independents — are vying to fill the void.

Mulgrave has been held by Curtis Pitt or his father Warren since 1989.

“I think there’s a real sense of community and connection candidates need to have in Far North Queensland seats you don’t see in other electorates necessarily, hence why there are so many people running,” Dr Hughes says.

Among the key issues is the yet-to-be-revealed location of a new youth detention centre, which Steven Miles has previously suggested could be in the electorate.

Dr Hughes says Mulgrave may be Katter’s Australian Party’s best hope of snaring a new seat.

“They’d look at themselves as being in with a chance — a very slim one — but for mine, the LNP will take the seat,” he says.

KAP preferences key in Cook

Arguably one of the toughest jobs in Queensland politics is to effectively represent the 200,000 square kilometre electorate of Cook.

The seat takes in Cape York and the Torres Strait, the ritzy tourist mecca of Port Douglas and the agricultural towns of Mareeba and Mossman.

Labor’s Cynthia Lui, the first Torres Strait Islander to sit in any parliament, has held the seat since 2015.

The seat is so diverse that Labor’s primary vote is as high as 89 per cent in Bamaga but as low as 6 per cent in Chillagoe.

Perina Drummond, a Thursday Island resident, says housing and the cost of living are just as relevant in the electorate as anywhere else.

“We’ve been speaking about that for a long time,” she says.

The government has moved to increase its subsidies on groceries in Cape York and the Torres Strait to 20 per cent this year.

But it has faced criticism for health outcomes in the Torres Strait, and the closure of the Mossman sugar mill.

Meanwhile, Ms Lui faced questions at a press conference — held by Mr Miles her electorate —  regarding bullying allegations and a high rate of turnover in her office.

She attributed it to a “demanding” work environment and said the matters had been “dealt with and settled”.

Dr Hughes believes the KAP is only an outside chance in Cook but says its preferences will decide who does win.

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