Beijing and Washington stops provide clues for Indonesia’s direction under Prabowo Subianto


The Indonesian president was in Washington to meet US President Joe Biden, but it was a phone call with president-elect Donald Trump that has made headlines.

An effusive exchange shared across Prabowo Subianto’s social media channels has raised eyebrows.

“Wherever you are, I’m willing to fly to congratulate you personally, sir,” Prabowo told Trump.

“That’s so nice,” Trump responded. 

“Well we’ll do that anytime you want but, ah, great job you’re doing in Indonesia … proud of you, really amazing.

“And your English is so good. Very good, the English.”

Prabowo replied: “All my training is American, sir.”

The new Indonesian leader is eager to assert a stronger presence on the global stage than his predecessor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.

And indeed, Prabowo’s links to the United States, and the West more broadly, run deep.

He attended high school at the American School in London and completed special forces training in the US during the 1980s.

Still, Prabowo reserved the boldest words and largest concessions for China — where he had been prior to arriving in Washington.

Joint statement with China ‘very dangerous’ for Indonesian sovereignty

In his second meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping since Prabowo was elected, the Indonesian president signed business deals worth more than $15 billion.

“It is only natural … that Indonesia and China have become very close partners and in many, many fields,” Prabowo said in Beijing.

“Indonesia considers China not only as a great power, but as a great civilisation.”

Two men standing together inside a building

Prabowo has met Chinese President Xi Jinping twice since being elected in February. (Reuters: Florence Lo)

It was the signing of a joint statement on the South China Sea, however, that left many observers bemused.

Implicitly it seemed to recognise China’s controversial “nine-dash line”, which infringes on waters claimed by several of Indonesia’s close neighbours.

Some have argued Indonesia fell for a trap.

Perhaps it was a strategic misstep by Prabowo’s inexperienced foreign minister Sugiono.

Others suggested it was a calculated yet foolish attempt to elicit economic benefits from China.

A map showing competing territory claims in the South China Sea.

The competing territory claims in the South China Sea. (ABC News: Illustration/Jarrod Fankhauser)

The International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Evan Laksmana told the ABC that on face value the statement was a “strategic setback” for Indonesia.

“I wonder if Indonesia needed to sign on that joint statement, with so many points in China’s favour, in order to get the economic stuff going,” he said.

“China doesn’t do these things out of the kindness of its heart, right?”

Indonesia’s foreign ministry later clarified the statement, asserting that: “Indonesia reiterates its position that [Chinese] claims have no international legal basis.”

But for Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, director of the China-Indonesia desk at the Jakarta-based Center of Economic and Law Studies, the move was “very dangerous for our sovereignty”.

He warned that joint oil and gas exploration in the contested Natuna Sea would undermine Indonesia’s position in South-East Asia.

With the largest population and economy in the region, Indonesia has long been a self-appointed leader within the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

“Usually countries like the Philippines are quite tough against China,” Dr Rakhmat said.

“If suddenly Indonesia becomes weak towards China, this could be a ‘betrayal’ for some ASEAN countries.”

ASEAN has barely rated a mention in Prabowo’s public comments on foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Jakarta’s ties with Beijing were strengthened during the 10 years of Jokowi and China is now Indonesia’s largest trading partner.

“There are already indications that [Indonesian] foreign policy is rather weak in front of China,” said Dr Rakhmat, referring to Indonesia’s unwillingness to criticise China over the persecution of Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang or aggression towards Taiwan.

“I see this as evidence that we are increasingly dependent on China.”

Prabowo a ‘mover and shaker’ around the world

After a closed-door meeting between Prabowo and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in April, Indonesia’s military chief announced that joint military exercises with China would resume in 2025.

As it seeks closer ties with BRICS grouping of non-Western nations, Indonesia held its first-ever bilateral naval drills with Russia earlier this month.

But Prabowo’s longstanding push to modernise Indonesia’s aging military hardware has looked mostly to the West.

While he’s a staunch nationalist, “cosmopolitan” is a descriptor often applied to Prabowo.

A man stands wearing sunglasses surrounded by colleagues and advisors

Prabowo’s links to the United States, and the West more broadly, run deep.
  (AFP: Indonesian Presidential Palace)

This is in stark contrast to Jokowi, whose priorities such as relocating the Indonesian capital to Borneo were unabashedly domestic.

The co-coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, Julia Lau, said that despite a diplomatic “self-inflicted wound” in its joint statement with China, the Indonesian foreign ministry’s clarification showed the official Indonesian position on the South China Sea had not changed.

And the likenesses between Trump and Prabowo could bode well for the US-Indonesia bilateral relationship.

“The two men have similar modes of operation,” said Lau.

“They’re brash, they don’t necessarily care about public disapproval — in fact, they seem to thrive on it.”

Biden said he and Prabowo discussed climate, conflict in the Middle East and the South China Sea during their meeting at the White House. 

Prabowo will continue on to Peru for the APEC summit and Brazil for the G20 summit, before ending the five-country tour in London to meet UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

“It’s significant that he’s choosing to be there, unlike Widodo who often delegated meetings and summits,” Lau added.

“Prabowo is actually energised by these meetings … he is a mover and shaker in many different parts of the world — and he is going to show it.”



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