Australians are being urged to brace for the worst of the fuel crisis, with one expert warning the full impact of the war in the Middle East is yet to be felt.
Defence and National Security Consultant John Blackburn told Sunrise that prices at petrol stations and pressure on food supplies are about to take a major hit.
The crisis will intensify by the end of this month as the last shipments of oil from the Strait of Hormuz run out, Blackburn said.
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“The last of the oil that came out of the Strait of Hormuz, that went to the refineries in Asia, that then got distributed to customers, has arrived,” he said.
“So, what we’re now going to start seeing is the impacts of that 20 per cent loss. And you’re going to have 100 per cent of the world’s demand trying to take what they can out of the 80 per cent supply,” Blackburn said.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been in Asia attempting to secure fuel supplies for the medium term through bilateral deals, leveraging Australia’s exports of fossil fuels including oil, condensate and LNG to the region.
While Blackburn praised the government’s reactive measures, including subsidising industry spot prices and negotiating priority access with regional refineries, he warned it won’t be enough.
“That’s not a long-term solution. We’re going to have to reduce consumption,” he said.
Blackburn said Australia has “failed to prepare for this for at least the last 15 years” and warned diesel would be hit hardest, affecting the entire supply chain.
“You watch programs of truckies saying, look, they can’t continue to afford to do this. So that’ll be the major problem,” he said.
Beyond fuel, Australians can expect shortages of chemicals and plastics exported from the Gulf region, with food packaging manufacturers already struggling to source adequate plastic materials.
“You’re going to see financial effects, supply chain effects that go beyond fuel and fertilisers,” Blackburn warned.
